Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of frontline healthcare workers in a highly affected region in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on the mental health of healthcare workers (HCWs), especially in low and middle-income countries, which had to face additional political, social, and economic challenges. We thus aimed to assess the prevalence of mental health outcomes and the associated factors in HCWs treating COVID-19 patients in one of the most affected regions in Brazil. METHODS: We used the Respondent-Driven Sampling method to assess the risks of COVID-19 infection and symptoms of mental disorders in nurses, nursing technicians, and physicians who worked on the frontline in the metropolitan region of Recife. 865 healthcare workers completed a survey regarding sociodemographic data, work-related risks, and symptoms of mental disorders - SRQ-20 for common mental disorders (CMD); AUDIT-C for problematic alcohol use; GAD-7 for anxiety; PHQ-9 for depression; PCL-5 for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Gile's successive sampling estimator was used to produce the weighted estimates by professional category. A Poisson regression model with robust variance was used to analyze factors associated with a positive screening for CMD. We will present the results of a cross-sectional analysis of the mental health outcomes after the first peak of COVID-19 - from August 2020 to February 2021. RESULTS: The prevalence ratios for a positive screening for CMD were 34.9% (95% CI: 27.8-41.9) in nurses, 28.6% (95% CI: 21.3-36.0) in physicians, and 26.6% (95% CI: 16.8-36.5) in nursing technicians. Nurses presented a higher prevalence of depressive symptoms (23%). Positive screening for problematic alcohol use (10.5 to14.0%), anxiety (10.4 to 13.3%), and PTSD (3.3 to 4.4%) were similar between the professional categories. The main factors associated with CMD in nurses and physicians were related to an intrinsic susceptibility to mental illness, such as previous or family history of psychiatric disorder, and female sex. Among nurse technicians, work-related factors, such as accidents with biological material, presented the strongest association with CMD. CONCLUSION: The mental health of HCWs fighting COVID-19 in Recife was severely affected. It is crucial that healthcare services provide adequate working conditions and psychological support, investing in programs to promote and protect HCWs mental health.

Systematic Review of Survival Analysis in Leprosy Studies-Including the Following Outcomes: Relapse, Impairment of Nerve Function, Reactions and Physical Disability.

Leprosy is a public health problem in South American, African and Oceanian countries. National programs need to be evaluated, and the survival analysis model can aid in the construction of new indicators. The aim of this study was to assess the period of time until the outcomes of interest for patients with or exposed to leprosy by means of survival analysis surveys. This review researched articles using the databases of PubMed, Science Direct, Scopus, Scielo and BVS published in English and Portuguese. Twenty-eight articles from Brazil, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Indonesia were included. The Kaplan-Meier method, which derives the log-rank test, and Cox's proportional hazards regression, which obtains the hazard ratio, were applied. The mean follow-up until the following outcomes were: (I) leprosy (2.3 years) in the population who were exposed to it, (II) relapse (5.9 years), (III) clinical manifestations before, during and after treatment-nerve function impairment (5.2 years), leprosy reactions (4.9 years) and physical disability (8.3 years) in the population of patients with leprosy. Therefore, the use of survival analysis will enable the evaluation of national leprosy programs and assist in the decision-making process to face public health problems.

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among front-line healthcare workers in Northeast Brazil: a respondent-driven sampling approach.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages and occurrence of biological accidents among front-line healthcare workers (HCW). DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Using respondent-driven sampling, the study recruited distinct categories of HCW attending suspected or confirmed patients with COVID-19 from May 2020 to February 2021, in the Recife metropolitan area, Northeast Brazil. OUTCOME MEASURES: The criterion to assess SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCW was a positive self-reported PCR test. RESULTS: We analysed 1525 HCW: 527 physicians, 471 registered nurses, 263 nursing assistants and 264 physical therapists. Women predominated in all categories (81.1%; 95% CI: 77.8% to 84.1%). Nurses were older with more comorbidities (hypertension and overweight/obesity) than the other staff. The overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 61.8% (95% CI: 55.7% to 67.5%) after adjustment for the cluster random effect, weighted by network, and the reference population size. Risk factors for a positive RT-PCR test were being a nursing assistant (OR adjusted: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.42 to 4.61), not always using all recommended PPE while assisting patients with COVID-19 (OR adj: 2.15; 95% CI: 1.02 to 4.53) and reporting a splash of biological fluid/respiratory secretion in the eyes (OR adj: 3.37; 95% CI: 1.10 to 10.34). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the high frequency of SARS-CoV2 infection among HCW presumably due to workplace exposures. In our setting, nursing assistant comprised the most vulnerable category. Our findings highlight the need for improving healthcare facility environments, specific training and supervision to cope with public health emergencies.

COVID-19 in northeast Brazil: first year of the pandemic and uncertainties to come.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemic of COVID-19 in northeastern Brazil, one of the regions most affected by the virus. METHODS: The official data for COVID-19, from March 2020 to March 2021 in the states of the Northeast Region (NE), were used. The analysis of capital cities and states for accumulated weekly cases and confirmed deaths was made using the JoinPoint Trend Analysis application. RESULTS: In one year, the Northeast region reported 22.9% of the cases and 21.5% of the deaths in the country due to COVID-19. At the beginning of the pandemic, all states showed a growing number of cases, first in the capitals and then in the interior. Following this wave, decreases are observed in all states and their capitals, but with many still reporting a large number of cases. In the middle of the 2nd semester of 2020 the number of cases begins to increase again simultaneously in states and their capitals-some at explosive speed-especially in late 2020 and early 2021. A similar pattern is observed in deaths, which exceed or approach the peak seen in the first wave. In the first wave, all capitals and northeastern states adopted intense isolation measures. Fortaleza, Recife and Teresina reached the highest isolation index of all capitals, close to 0.60. This index decreases, with a slight growth trend until the end of December. With the exception of Fortaleza and Salvador, the other capitals fell to less than 0.40. CONCLUSION: The Brazilian NE and the country are in increasingly complicated health, social and economic situations. It is necessary to speed up vaccinations and maintain non-pharmacological measures: face masks, social distancing measures and hygiene care, in addition to policies to protect workers who have lost their incomes and to subsidize small business owners.

[Covid-19 in the Northeast of Brazil: from lockdown to the relaxation of social distancing measures]. / Covid-19 no nordeste do Brasil: entre o lockdown e o relaxamento das medidas de distanciamento social.

Even in the period when the Covid-19 pandemic was on the rise in the Northeast of Brazil, the relaxation of social distancing measures was introduced. The scope of the study is to assess, in the light of the epidemiological-sanitary situation in the region, the suitability of relaxation of social distancing measures. Based on the WHO guidelines for relaxation of social distancing, operational indicators were created and analyzed for each guideline in the context of the Northeast. To analyze the behavior of the epidemic, according to selected indicators, Joinpoint trend analysis techniques, heat maps, rate ratios and time trends between capitals and the state interior were compared. The weekly growth peak of the epidemic occurred in May-July 2020 (epidemiological weeks 19 to 31). In most capitals, there was no simultaneous downward trend in the number of cases and deaths in the 14 days prior to flexibilization. In all states the number of tests performed was insufficient. In epidemiological week 24, the state percentages of ICU/Covid-19 bed occupancy were close to or above 70%. The epidemiological situation of the nine Northeastern state capitals analyzed here did not meet criteria and parameters recommended by the World Health Organization for the relaxation of social distancing measures.

Mesmo no período em que a pandemia de Covid-19 encontrava-se em crescimento no Nordeste do Brasil, iniciou-se a adoção de medidas de flexibilização do distanciamento social. O objetivo do estudo é o de avaliar a pertinência das propostas de flexibilização, tomando-se em conta a situação da pandemia em cada local e o momento em que foram adotadas. Tendo como referência as diretrizes da OMS, foram construídos e analisados indicadores operacionais para cada diretriz, no contexto da região Nordeste. Para análise do comportamento da epidemia, conforme indicadores selecionados, foram usadas técnicas de Joinpoint Trend Analysis, mapas de calor, razão de taxas e comparação da tendência temporal entre capitais e interior dos estados. O pico do crescimento semanal ocorreu em maio-julho/2020 (semanas epidemiológicas 19 a 31). Na maioria das capitais não se observou tendência decrescente simultânea do número de casos e óbitos nos 14 dias prévios à flexibilização. Em todos os estados o quantitativo de testes realizados foi insuficiente. Na semana epidemiológica 24 os percentuais estaduais de ocupação de leitos de UTI/Covid-19 foram próximos ou superiores 70%. A situação epidemiológica das nove capitais dos estados do Nordeste, no momento em que a decisão de flexibilização foi tomada, mostra que nenhuma delas atendia aos critérios e parâmetros recomendados pela OMS.

Covid-19 no nordeste do Brasil: entre o lockdown e o relaxamento das medidas de distanciamento social / Covid-19 in the Northeast of Brazil: from lockdown to the relaxation of social distancing measures

Resumo Mesmo no período em que a pandemia de Covid-19 encontrava-se em crescimento no Nordeste do Brasil, iniciou-se a adoção de medidas de flexibilização do distanciamento social. O objetivo do estudo é o de avaliar a pertinência das propostas de flexibilização, tomando-se em conta a situação da pandemia em cada local e o momento em que foram adotadas. Tendo como referência as diretrizes da OMS, foram construídos e analisados indicadores operacionais para cada diretriz, no contexto da região Nordeste. Para análise do comportamento da epidemia, conforme indicadores selecionados, foram usadas técnicas de Joinpoint Trend Analysis, mapas de calor, razão de taxas e comparação da tendência temporal entre capitais e interior dos estados. O pico do crescimento semanal ocorreu em maio-julho/2020 (semanas epidemiológicas 19 a 31). Na maioria das capitais não se observou tendência decrescente simultânea do número de casos e óbitos nos 14 dias prévios à flexibilização. Em todos os estados o quantitativo de testes realizados foi insuficiente. Na semana epidemiológica 24 os percentuais estaduais de ocupação de leitos de UTI/Covid-19 foram próximos ou superiores 70%. A situação epidemiológica das nove capitais dos estados do Nordeste, no momento em que a decisão de flexibilização foi tomada, mostra que nenhuma delas atendia aos critérios e parâmetros recomendados pela OMS.

Abstract Even in the period when the Covid-19 pandemic was on the rise in the Northeast of Brazil, the relaxation of social distancing measures was introduced. The scope of the study is to assess, in the light of the epidemiological-sanitary situation in the region, the suitability of relaxation of social distancing measures. Based on the WHO guidelines for relaxation of social distancing, operational indicators were created and analyzed for each guideline in the context of the Northeast. To analyze the behavior of the epidemic, according to selected indicators, Joinpoint trend analysis techniques, heat maps, rate ratios and time trends between capitals and the state interior were compared. The weekly growth peak of the epidemic occurred in May-July 2020 (epidemiological weeks 19 to 31). In most capitals, there was no simultaneous downward trend in the number of cases and deaths in the 14 days prior to flexibilization. In all states the number of tests performed was insufficient. In epidemiological week 24, the state percentages of ICU/Covid-19 bed occupancy were close to or above 70%. The epidemiological situation of the nine Northeastern state capitals analyzed here did not meet criteria and parameters recommended by the World Health Organization for the relaxation of social distancing measures.

Zika-related adverse outcomes in a cohort of pregnant women with rash in Pernambuco, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: While Zika virus (ZIKV) is now widely recognized as a teratogen, the frequency and full spectrum of adverse outcomes of congenital ZIKV infection remains incompletely understood. METHODS: Participants in the MERG cohort of pregnant women with rash, recruited from the surveillance system from December/2015-June/2017. Exposure definition was based on a combination of longitudinal data from molecular, serologic (IgM and IgG3) and plaque reduction neutralization tests for ZIKV. Children were evaluated by a team of clinical specialists and by transfontanelle ultrasound and were classified as having microcephaly and/or other signs/symptoms consistent with congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). Risks of adverse outcomes were quantified according to the relative evidence of a ZIKV infection in pregnancy. FINDINGS: 376 women had confirmed and suspected exposure to ZIKV. Among evaluable children born to these mothers, 20% presented with an adverse outcome compatible with exposure to ZIKV during pregnancy. The absolute risk of microcephaly was 2.9% (11/376), of calcifications and/or ventriculomegaly was 7.2% (13/180), of additional neurologic alterations was 5.3% (13/245), of ophthalmologic abnormalities was 7% (15/214), and of dysphagia was 1.8% (4/226). Less than 1% of the children experienced abnormalities across all of the domains simultaneously. Interpretation: Although approximately one-fifth of children with confirmed and suspected exposure to ZIKV in pregnancy presented with at least one abnormality compatible with CZS, the manifestations presented more frequently in isolation than in combination. Due to the rare nature of some outcomes and the possibility of later manifestations, large scale individual participant data meta-analysis and the long-term evaluation of children are imperative to identify the full spectrum of this syndrome and to plan actions to reduce damages.

Effectiveness of screening for tuberculosis in HIV: a pragmatic clinical trial

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To verify the effectiveness of screening for tuberculosis (TB) on all-cause mortality and tuberculosis cases in newly diagnosed HIV-infected patients through a clinical algorithm based on recommendations of the World Health Organization. METHODS: From March 2014 to April 2016, a pragmatic randomized clinical trial was conducted with newly diagnosed and TB-free HIV-infected adults undergoing antiretroviral therapy for up to one month at a major tertiary hospital for HIV in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. Participants were randomized into intervention and control groups using an automatically-generated random list, and followed-up for at least 6 months. The intervention group was screened for TB at hospital admission and at every follow-up visit through a series of questions addressing TB-related symptoms (cough, fever, night sweating, and weight loss). Patients presenting with any of these symptoms were referred to a pulmonologist and underwent sputum smear microscopy, sputum culture, and rapid molecular testing (GeneXpert). When at least one test result came back positive, TB treatment was initiated. In turn, if patients tested negative but presented with severe clinal symptoms, TB preventive treatment was initiated. Screening for TB was not performed systematically in the control group. The primary outcome assessed in this study was death from all causes, and secondary outcomes included sensitivity and specificity of this screening test, as well as its detection time. RESULTS: This study evaluated 581 patients, 377 in the intervention group (64.9%) and 204 in the control group (35.1%). In total, 36 patients died during the follow-up period. Of these, 26 (6.9%) were from the intervention group, reaching a cumulative mortality coefficient of 69 per 1,000 inhabitants, and 10 (4.9%) from the control group (p = 0.341), with a cumulative mortality coefficient of 49 per 1,000 inhabitants (p = 0.341).

Covid-19 in northeast Brazil: first year of the pandemic and uncertainties to come / Covid-19 no nordeste do Brasil: primeiro ano de pandemia e incertezas que estão por vir

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemic of COVID-19 in northeastern Brazil, one of the regions most affected by the virus. METHODS The official data for COVID-19, from March 2020 to March 2021 in the states of the Northeast Region (NE), were used. The analysis of capital cities and states for accumulated weekly cases and confirmed deaths was made using the JoinPoint Trend Analysis application. RESULTS In one year, the Northeast region reported 22.9% of the cases and 21.5% of the deaths in the country due to COVID-19. At the beginning of the pandemic, all states showed a growing number of cases, first in the capitals and then in the interior. Following this wave, decreases are observed in all states and their capitals, but with many still reporting a large number of cases. In the middle of the 2nd semester of 2020 the number of cases begins to increase again simultaneously in states and their capitals—some at explosive speed—especially in late 2020 and early 2021. A similar pattern is observed in deaths, which exceed or approach the peak seen in the first wave. In the first wave, all capitals and northeastern states adopted intense isolation measures. Fortaleza, Recife and Teresina reached the highest isolation index of all capitals, close to 0.60. This index decreases, with a slight growth trend until the end of December. With the exception of Fortaleza and Salvador, the other capitals fell to less than 0.40. CONCLUSION The Brazilian NE and the country are in increasingly complicated health, social and economic situations. It is necessary to speed up vaccinations and maintain non-pharmacological measures: face masks, social distancing measures and hygiene care, in addition to policies to protect workers who have lost their incomes and to subsidize small business owners.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar a epidemia da covid-19 na região Nordeste do Brasil, uma das mais atingidas por essa virose. MÉTODOS Os dados oficiais para covid-19 dos estados do Nordeste são referentes ao período de março de 2020 a março de 2021. A análise para capitais e estados da série do acumulado semanal de casos e de óbitos confirmados foi feita com emprego do aplicativo JoinPoint Trend Analysis. RESULTADOS Em um ano, o Nordeste acumulou 22,9% dos casos e 21,5% dos óbitos do país pela covid-19. No início da pandemia, todos os estados apresentaram um crescimento sustentável de casos, primeiro nas capitais e depois interior. Em seguida, observam-se decréscimos em todos os estados e suas capitais, porém muitos permanecem com números elevados. Em meados do segundo semestre de 2020, o número de casos começa a crescer nos estados e suas capitais, alguns em velocidade explosiva, em especial no final de 2020 e início de 2021. Padrão similar é observado para os óbitos, os quais ultrapassaram ou aproximam-se do teto observado na primeira onda, na qual todas as capitais e estados do Nordeste adotaram intensas medidas de isolamento. Fortaleza, Recife e Teresina atingiram os maiores índices de isolamento de todas as capitais, perto de 0,60. Esse índice decresce, com tendência leve de crescimento até final de dezembro, voltando a decrescer. Com exceção de Fortaleza e Salvador, as demais capitais caíram para menos de 0,40. CONCLUSÃO O Nordeste brasileiro e o país estão em uma situação sanitária, social e econômica cada vez mais complexa. É necessário acelerar o processo de vacinação e manter as medidas não farmacológicas - constante uso de máscaras faciais, medidas de distanciamento e cuidados de higiene -, além de políticas de proteção aos trabalhadores que perderam as suas rendas e subsídios aos pequenos empresários.

The first hundred days of COVID-19 in Pernambuco State, Brazil: epidemiology in historical context. / Cem dias de COVID-19 em Pernambuco, Brasil: a epidemiologia em contexto histórico.

The timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic began on December 31, 2019, in China, with SARS-CoV-2 identified as the etiological agent. This article aims to describe the COVID-19 epidemic's spatial and temporal dynamics in the first hundred days in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. We present the evolution in cases and deaths according to epidemiological weeks. We analyzed the series of accumulated daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, with projections for the subsequent 15 days, using the JoinPoint app. This software allows identifying turning points, testing their statistical significance. We also analyze the trend in the spread of COVID-19 to the interior of the state, considering the percent distribution of cases in the state capital, Recife, municipalities in Greater Metropolitan Recife, and the state's interior, by sets of three weeks, constructing thematic maps. The first hundred days of the COVID-19 epidemic resulted in 52,213 cases and 4,235 deaths from March 12, or epidemiological week 11, until June 20, 2020 (epidemiological week 25). The peak in the epidemic curve occurred in epidemiological week 21 (May 23), followed by deceleration in the number of cases. We initially detected the spread of cases from the city center to the periphery of the state capital and Metropolitan Area, followed by rapid spread to the state's interior. There was a decrease in the mean daily growth starting in April, but with an average threshold of more than 6,000 weekly cases of COVID-19. At the end of the period, the state's case series indicates the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 circulation and community transmission. Finally, paraphrasing Gabriel Garcia Marques in One Hundred Years of Solitude, we ask whether we are facing "a pause in the storm or a sign of redoubled rain".

A pandemia de COVID-19 iniciou sua linha do tempo em 31 de dezembro de 2019 na China e o SARS-CoV-2 identificado como agente etiológico. O objetivo deste manuscrito é descrever a dinâmica espacial e temporal da epidemia de COVID-19 nos primeiros cem dias, no Estado de Pernambuco, Brasil. Apresentamos a evolução de casos e óbitos segundo semana epidemiológica. Realizamos a análise da série do acumulado diário de casos da COVID-19 confirmados, com projeções para os 15 dias subsequentes, utilizando o aplicativo JoinPoint. Esse programa possibilita identificar pontos de inflexão testando sua significância estatística. Analisamos também a tendência de interiorização da COVID-19 no estado, considerando a distribuição percentual de casos ocorridos no Recife, municípios da Região Metropolitana de Recife e do interior, por conjuntos de três semanas, com construção de mapas temáticos. Os 100 dias da epidemia de COVID-19 resultaram em 52.213 casos e 4.235 óbitos entre 12 de março, correspondendo se 11, até 20 de junho de 2020 (semana epidemiológica 25). O pico da curva epidêmica ocorreu na semana epidemiológica 21 (23 de maio), seguido por desaceleração do número de casos. Detectou-se, inicialmente, a periferização dos casos na capital e região metropolitana, seguida por rápida disseminação para o interior do estado. Houve redução das taxas de crescimento médio diário a partir de abril, mas com patamar de mais de 6.000 casos semanais de COVID-19, em média. Ao final do período, a série de casos do estado indica persistência da circulação e transmissão comunitária do SARS-CoV-2. Finalmente, questiona-se parafraseando Garcia Marques em Cem Anos de Solidão, se estaríamos diante de "uma estiagem ou prenúncio de recrudescimento".

La pandemia de COVID-19 inicia su línea del tiempo el 31 de dicembre de 2019 en China y el SARS-CoV-2 identificado como agente etiológico. El objetivo de este trabajo original es describir la dinámica espacial y temporal de la epidemia de COVID-19 en los primeros cien días de epidemia, en el estado de Pernambuco, Brasil. Presentamos la evolución de casos y óbitos según las semanas epidemiológicas. Realizamos el análisis de la serie del acumulado diario de casos de COVID-19 confirmados, con proyecciones para los 15 días subsiguientes, utilizándose la aplicación JoinPoint. Este programa posibilita identificar puntos de inflexión, probando su significancia estadística. Analizamos también la tendencia de interiorización de la COVID-19 en el estado, considerándose la distribución porcentual de casos ocurridos en Recife, municipios de la Región Metropolitana de Recife y del interior, por conjuntos de tres semanas, con unas construcciones de mapas temáticos. Los cien días de la epidemia de COVID-19 resultaron en 52.213 casos y 4.235 óbitos entre el 12 de marzo, correspondiendo a la semana epidemiológica 11, hasta el 20 de juno de 2020 (semana epidemiológica 25). El pico de la curva epidémica ocurrió en la semana epidemiológica 21 (23 de mayo), seguido de una desaceleración en el número de casos. Se detectó, inicialmente, la periferización de los casos en la capital y región metropolitana, seguido por la rápida diseminación hacia el interior del estado. Hubo una reducción de las tasas de crecimiento medio diario a partir de abril, pero con un nivel de más de 6.000 casos semanales de COVID-19 de media. Al final del período la serie de casos del estado indica la persistencia de la circulación y transmisión comunitaria del SARS-CoV-2. Finalmente, se cuestiona, parafraseando a García Márquez en Cien Años de Soledad, si estamos ante "un periodo de remisión o la antesala de un recrudecimiento".

COVID-19 in Northeast Brazil: achievements and limitations in the responses of the state governments. / COVID-19 no Nordeste brasileiro: sucessos e limitações nas respostas dos governos dos estados.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been most severe in the poorest regions of Brazil, such as the states of the Northeast Region. The lack of national policies for pandemic control forced state and municipal authorities to implement public health measures. The aim of this study is to show the effect of these measures on the epidemic. The highest incidence of COVID-19 among the nine states in the Northeast was recorded in Sergipe, Paraíba and Ceará. Piauí, Paraíba and Ceará were the states that most tested. Factors associated with transmission included the high proportion of people in informal work. States with international airports played an important role in the entry of the virus and the initial spread, especially Ceará. All states applied social distancing measures, banned public events and closed schools. The response was a significant increase in social distancing, especially in Ceará and Pernambuco, a decline in the reproduction rate (Rt), and a separation of the curve of observed cases versus expected cases if the non-pharmacological interventions had not been implemented in all states. Poverty, inequality, and the high rates of informal work provide clues to the intensity of COVID-19 in the region. On the other hand, the measures taken early by the governments mitigated the effects of the pandemic.

No Brasil, a pandemia da COVID-19 tem sido severa nos estados das regiões mais pobres, como o Nordeste. A falta de políticas nacionais para controle da pandemia levou as autoridades estaduais e municipais a implementarem medidas de saúde pública. O objetivo deste estudo é mostrar o efeito dessas medidas na epidemia. A maior incidência da COVID-19 entre os nove estados do Nordeste foi registrada em Sergipe, Paraíba e Ceará. O Piauí, a Paraíba e Ceará foram os que mais testaram. Muitos estados apresentavam alta proporção de pessoas em trabalho informal. Estados com aeroportos internacionais tiveram importante papel na entrada e disseminação inicial do vírus, em especial o Ceará. Todos os estados aplicaram medidas de distanciamento social, proibição de eventos públicos e fechamento de unidades de ensino. As respostas foram o aumento significativo de distanciamento social, em especial Ceará e Pernambuco, a queda do número de reprodução (Rt) e a separação da curva dos casos observados da curva dos casos esperados sem as intervenções não medicamentosas em todos os estados. A pobreza, a desigualdade e as altas taxas de trabalho informal fornecem pistas do porquê da intensidade da COVID-19 na região. Por outro lado, as medidas de mitigação tomadas precocemente pelos governantes amenizaram os efeitos da pandemia.

COVID-19 no Nordeste brasileiro: sucessos e limitações nas respostas dos governos dos estados / COVID-19 in Northeast Brazil: achievements and limitations in the responses of the state governments

Resumo No Brasil, a pandemia da COVID-19 tem sido severa nos estados das regiões mais pobres, como o Nordeste. A falta de políticas nacionais para controle da pandemia levou as autoridades estaduais e municipais a implementarem medidas de saúde pública. O objetivo deste estudo é mostrar o efeito dessas medidas na epidemia. A maior incidência da COVID-19 entre os nove estados do Nordeste foi registrada em Sergipe, Paraíba e Ceará. O Piauí, a Paraíba e Ceará foram os que mais testaram. Muitos estados apresentavam alta proporção de pessoas em trabalho informal. Estados com aeroportos internacionais tiveram importante papel na entrada e disseminação inicial do vírus, em especial o Ceará. Todos os estados aplicaram medidas de distanciamento social, proibição de eventos públicos e fechamento de unidades de ensino. As respostas foram o aumento significativo de distanciamento social, em especial Ceará e Pernambuco, a queda do número de reprodução (Rt) e a separação da curva dos casos observados da curva dos casos esperados sem as intervenções não medicamentosas em todos os estados. A pobreza, a desigualdade e as altas taxas de trabalho informal fornecem pistas do porquê da intensidade da COVID-19 na região. Por outro lado, as medidas de mitigação tomadas precocemente pelos governantes amenizaram os efeitos da pandemia.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has been most severe in the poorest regions of Brazil, such as the states of the Northeast Region. The lack of national policies for pandemic control forced state and municipal authorities to implement public health measures. The aim of this study is to show the effect of these measures on the epidemic. The highest incidence of COVID-19 among the nine states in the Northeast was recorded in Sergipe, Paraíba and Ceará. Piauí, Paraíba and Ceará were the states that most tested. Factors associated with transmission included the high proportion of people in informal work. States with international airports played an important role in the entry of the virus and the initial spread, especially Ceará. All states applied social distancing measures, banned public events and closed schools. The response was a significant increase in social distancing, especially in Ceará and Pernambuco, a decline in the reproduction rate (Rt), and a separation of the curve of observed cases versus expected cases if the non-pharmacological interventions had not been implemented in all states. Poverty, inequality, and the high rates of informal work provide clues to the intensity of COVID-19 in the region. On the other hand, the measures taken early by the governments mitigated the effects of the pandemic.

Cem dias de COVID-19 em Pernambuco, Brasil: a epidemiologia em contexto histórico / Cien días de COVID-19 en Pernambuco, Brasil: la epidemiología en contexto histórico / The first hundred days of COVID-19 in Pernambuco State, Brazil: epidemiology in historical context

Resumo: A pandemia de COVID-19 iniciou sua linha do tempo em 31 de dezembro de 2019 na China e o SARS-CoV-2 identificado como agente etiológico. O objetivo deste manuscrito é descrever a dinâmica espacial e temporal da epidemia de COVID-19 nos primeiros cem dias, no Estado de Pernambuco, Brasil. Apresentamos a evolução de casos e óbitos segundo semana epidemiológica. Realizamos a análise da série do acumulado diário de casos da COVID-19 confirmados, com projeções para os 15 dias subsequentes, utilizando o aplicativo JoinPoint. Esse programa possibilita identificar pontos de inflexão testando sua significância estatística. Analisamos também a tendência de interiorização da COVID-19 no estado, considerando a distribuição percentual de casos ocorridos no Recife, municípios da Região Metropolitana de Recife e do interior, por conjuntos de três semanas, com construção de mapas temáticos. Os 100 dias da epidemia de COVID-19 resultaram em 52.213 casos e 4.235 óbitos entre 12 de março, correspondendo se 11, até 20 de junho de 2020 (semana epidemiológica 25). O pico da curva epidêmica ocorreu na semana epidemiológica 21 (23 de maio), seguido por desaceleração do número de casos. Detectou-se, inicialmente, a periferização dos casos na capital e região metropolitana, seguida por rápida disseminação para o interior do estado. Houve redução das taxas de crescimento médio diário a partir de abril, mas com patamar de mais de 6.000 casos semanais de COVID-19, em média. Ao final do período, a série de casos do estado indica persistência da circulação e transmissão comunitária do SARS-CoV-2. Finalmente, questiona-se parafraseando Garcia Marques em Cem Anos de Solidão, se estaríamos diante de "uma estiagem ou prenúncio de recrudescimento".

Resumen: La pandemia de COVID-19 inicia su línea del tiempo el 31 de dicembre de 2019 en China y el SARS-CoV-2 identificado como agente etiológico. El objetivo de este trabajo original es describir la dinámica espacial y temporal de la epidemia de COVID-19 en los primeros cien días de epidemia, en el estado de Pernambuco, Brasil. Presentamos la evolución de casos y óbitos según las semanas epidemiológicas. Realizamos el análisis de la serie del acumulado diario de casos de COVID-19 confirmados, con proyecciones para los 15 días subsiguientes, utilizándose la aplicación JoinPoint. Este programa posibilita identificar puntos de inflexión, probando su significancia estadística. Analizamos también la tendencia de interiorización de la COVID-19 en el estado, considerándose la distribución porcentual de casos ocurridos en Recife, municipios de la Región Metropolitana de Recife y del interior, por conjuntos de tres semanas, con unas construcciones de mapas temáticos. Los cien días de la epidemia de COVID-19 resultaron en 52.213 casos y 4.235 óbitos entre el 12 de marzo, correspondiendo a la semana epidemiológica 11, hasta el 20 de juno de 2020 (semana epidemiológica 25). El pico de la curva epidémica ocurrió en la semana epidemiológica 21 (23 de mayo), seguido de una desaceleración en el número de casos. Se detectó, inicialmente, la periferización de los casos en la capital y región metropolitana, seguido por la rápida diseminación hacia el interior del estado. Hubo una reducción de las tasas de crecimiento medio diario a partir de abril, pero con un nivel de más de 6.000 casos semanales de COVID-19 de media. Al final del período la serie de casos del estado indica la persistencia de la circulación y transmisión comunitaria del SARS-CoV-2. Finalmente, se cuestiona, parafraseando a García Márquez en Cien Años de Soledad, si estamos ante "un periodo de remisión o la antesala de un recrudecimiento".

Abstract: The timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic began on December 31, 2019, in China, with SARS-CoV-2 identified as the etiological agent. This article aims to describe the COVID-19 epidemic's spatial and temporal dynamics in the first hundred days in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. We present the evolution in cases and deaths according to epidemiological weeks. We analyzed the series of accumulated daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, with projections for the subsequent 15 days, using the JoinPoint app. This software allows identifying turning points, testing their statistical significance. We also analyze the trend in the spread of COVID-19 to the interior of the state, considering the percent distribution of cases in the state capital, Recife, municipalities in Greater Metropolitan Recife, and the state's interior, by sets of three weeks, constructing thematic maps. The first hundred days of the COVID-19 epidemic resulted in 52,213 cases and 4,235 deaths from March 12, or epidemiological week 11, until June 20, 2020 (epidemiological week 25). The peak in the epidemic curve occurred in epidemiological week 21 (May 23), followed by deceleration in the number of cases. We initially detected the spread of cases from the city center to the periphery of the state capital and Metropolitan Area, followed by rapid spread to the state's interior. There was a decrease in the mean daily growth starting in April, but with an average threshold of more than 6,000 weekly cases of COVID-19. At the end of the period, the state's case series indicates the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 circulation and community transmission. Finally, paraphrasing Gabriel Garcia Marques in One Hundred Years of Solitude, we ask whether we are facing "a pause in the storm or a sign of redoubled rain".

Knowledge, attitudes and practices of community health agents regarding pulmonary tuberculosis in a capital city in northeastern Brazil. / Conhecimento, atitudes e práticas de agentes comunitários de saúde sobre tuberculose pulmonar em uma capital do Nordeste do Brasil.

This article analyses the knowledge, attitudes and practices of community health agents (CHAs) regarding tuberculosis in Recife, a municipality with a high incidence of tuberculosis and high treatment dropout rates in Brazil. The cross-sectional study was conducted with a representative sample of CHAs and a standardized questionnaire. The frequencies of the variables related to knowledge, attitudes and practices were described, and the association between satisfactory knowledge and appropriate practices of CHAs was analysed. Of the 401 eligible CHAs, 385 (96.0%) were interviewed. The majority were women (87.5%) aged ≥ 40 years (66.0%) and had been on the job for more than nine years (74.5%). A large percentage (61.7%) had satisfactory knowledge about tuberculosis, and this knowledge (75.8%) was associated with appropriate practices (p = 0.008). Regarding attitudes, 97.1% of CHAs were believed to be at risk of contracting tuberculosis, and 53.2% attributed this risk to their job. The results suggest the need for investment in training actions that may help improve tuberculosis indicators in the municipality.

Esse artigo analisa o conhecimento, atitudes e práticas sobre tuberculose de agentes comunitários de saúde (ACS) no Recife, município com altas taxas de incidência e de abandono do tratamento no Brasil. O estudo transversal foi conduzido em uma amostra representativa dos ACS utilizando questionário padronizado. Descreveram-se as frequências das variáveis referentes ao conhecimento, atitudes e práticas e analisou-se a associação do conhecimento satisfatório e práticas adequadas com características dos ACS. Dos 401 ACS elegíveis, 385 (96,0%) foram entrevistados. A maioria era composta por mulheres (87,5%), com idade ≥ 40 anos (66,0%) e desempenhando a função há mais de nove anos (74,5%). Um percentual de 61,7% tinha conhecimento satisfatório e esse conhecimento (75,8%) esteve associado às práticas adequadas (p = 0,008). Quanto às atitudes, 97,1% dos ACS acreditavam estar sob risco de contrair tuberculose e 53,2% atribuíram o risco à função. Parcela significativa dos ACS apresentou conhecimento satisfatório sobre tuberculose e esse conhecimento esteve associado às práticas adequadas. Esse resultado sugere a necessidade de investimentos em ações de capacitação que podem contribuir para a melhoria dos indicadores de tuberculose no município.

Conhecimento, atitudes e práticas de agentes comunitários de saúde sobre tuberculose pulmonar em uma capital do Nordeste do Brasil / Knowledge, attitudes and practices of community health agents regarding pulmonary tuberculosis in a capital city in northeastern Brazil

Resumo Esse artigo analisa o conhecimento, atitudes e práticas sobre tuberculose de agentes comunitários de saúde (ACS) no Recife, município com altas taxas de incidência e de abandono do tratamento no Brasil. O estudo transversal foi conduzido em uma amostra representativa dos ACS utilizando questionário padronizado. Descreveram-se as frequências das variáveis referentes ao conhecimento, atitudes e práticas e analisou-se a associação do conhecimento satisfatório e práticas adequadas com características dos ACS. Dos 401 ACS elegíveis, 385 (96,0%) foram entrevistados. A maioria era composta por mulheres (87,5%), com idade ≥ 40 anos (66,0%) e desempenhando a função há mais de nove anos (74,5%). Um percentual de 61,7% tinha conhecimento satisfatório e esse conhecimento (75,8%) esteve associado às práticas adequadas (p = 0,008). Quanto às atitudes, 97,1% dos ACS acreditavam estar sob risco de contrair tuberculose e 53,2% atribuíram o risco à função. Parcela significativa dos ACS apresentou conhecimento satisfatório sobre tuberculose e esse conhecimento esteve associado às práticas adequadas. Esse resultado sugere a necessidade de investimentos em ações de capacitação que podem contribuir para a melhoria dos indicadores de tuberculose no município.

Abstract This article analyses the knowledge, attitudes and practices of community health agents (CHAs) regarding tuberculosis in Recife, a municipality with a high incidence of tuberculosis and high treatment dropout rates in Brazil. The cross-sectional study was conducted with a representative sample of CHAs and a standardized questionnaire. The frequencies of the variables related to knowledge, attitudes and practices were described, and the association between satisfactory knowledge and appropriate practices of CHAs was analysed. Of the 401 eligible CHAs, 385 (96.0%) were interviewed. The majority were women (87.5%) aged ≥ 40 years (66.0%) and had been on the job for more than nine years (74.5%). A large percentage (61.7%) had satisfactory knowledge about tuberculosis, and this knowledge (75.8%) was associated with appropriate practices (p = 0.008). Regarding attitudes, 97.1% of CHAs were believed to be at risk of contracting tuberculosis, and 53.2% attributed this risk to their job. The results suggest the need for investment in training actions that may help improve tuberculosis indicators in the municipality.

Factors associated with underreporting of tuberculosis based on data from Sinan Aids and Sinan TB. / Fatores associados à subnotificação de tuberculose com base no Sinan Aids e Sinan Tuberculose.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the world's major public health problems. Epidemiological surveillance has proved to be an important tool to assist in the control and prevention of communicable diseases such as TB and AIDS. This study aimed to estimate the rate and factors associated with the underreporting of TB among cases of coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS in the state of Pernambuco, based on data from the TB and Aids Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan TB and Sinan AIDS). METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out based on the records of the TB and AIDS Notification System to identify cases of TB underreporting in the study period. In order to identify underreporting, a probabilistic linkage was undertaken using RecLink III software. RESULTS: The rate of TB underreporting was 29%, and the factors associated were: presenting a clinical form of TB as cavitary or unspecified pulmonary TB or having both kinds of TB at the same time; being treated outside the municipality of Recife; and being treated at health services not specialized for HIV/AIDS. DISCUSSION: The proportion of underreporting found in our study was lower than that observed in other Brazilian studies that took into account underreporting from mortality data. CONCLUSION: The variables associated with underreporting of TB were mostly related to the healthcare system rather than to individual characteristics, which points to the need for training of health professionals in order to notify the information systems correctly.

INTRODUÇÃO: A tuberculose (TB) é um dos graves problemas da saúde pública mundial. A vigilância epidemiológica tem se mostrado uma importante ferramenta para auxiliar em ações de controle e prevenção de doenças transmissíveis, como a TB e a aids. O objetivo do presente estudo foi estimar a proporção e os fatores associados à subnotificação da tuberculose em Pernambuco, entre os casos de coinfecção TB/aids, com base nos dados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação da TB e da aids. MÉTODOS: Realizou-se um estudo de corte seccional, baseado nos registros dos Sistemas de Notificação de TB e aids, para identificação de casos de subnotificação de TB no período de estudo, mediante a realização de linkage probabilístico utilizando o software RecLink III. Resultados: Verificou-se proporção de 29% de subnotificação de TB, e os fatores associados à subnotificação foram: apresentar forma clínica da TB pulmonar cavitária ou não especificada, ou ter os dois tipos de TB ao mesmo tempo; e ser atendido fora do Recife e em serviços que não são especializados para vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV)/aids. DISCUSSÃO: A proporção de subnotificação encontrada em nosso estudo foi menor do que a observada em outras pesquisas brasileiras que levaram em consideração a subnotificação haja vista os dados de mortalidade. CONCLUSÃO: As variáveis associadas à subnotificação de TB referem-se, em sua maioria, à rede de atenção, e não às características individuais, o que aponta para a necessidade de capacitação dos profissionais de saúde para efetuar a notificação aos sistemas de informação.

The microcephaly epidemic and Zika virus: building knowledge in epidemiology. / Epidemia de microcefalia e vírus Zika: a construção do conhecimento em epidemiologia.

In August 2015, pediatric neurologists at public hospitals in Recife, Pernambuco State, Brazil, observed an increase in the number of disproportional microcephaly cases associated with other congenital anomalies. The fact caused social commotion and mobilization of the academic community and led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to declare a national public health emergency, followed by the declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. The hypothesis for the phenomenon was congenital Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, based on spatial-temporal correlation and the clinical-epidemiological characteristics of the two epidemics. Further evidence accumulated, and within the scope of epidemiologial reasoning fulfilled criteria that gave support to the hypothesis. The plausibility of the hypothesis is based on the neurotropism of ZIKV, demonstrated in animals, affecting neural progenitors in the developing brain, and in humans, due to neurological complications in adults following infection. Isolation of viral RNA and antigens in the amniotic fluid of infected mothers and in brains of newborns and fetuses with microcephaly further demonstrated the consistency of the hypothesis. The criterion of temporality was met by identifying adverse pregnancy outcomes in a cohort of mothers with a history of rash and positive ZIKV serology. Finally, the first case-control study demonstrated a strong association between microcephaly and congenital ZIKV infection. The knowledge built with the epidemiological paradigm was supported by the scientific community, thereby establishing the consensus for a causal relationship between ZIKV and the microcephaly epidemic.

Em agosto de 2015, neuropediatras de hospitais públicos do Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil, observaram um aumento do número de casos de microcefalia desproporcional associado a anomalias cerebrais. Esse fato gerou comoção social, mobilização da comunidade acadêmica e levou o Ministério da Saúde a decretar emergência de saúde pública nacional, seguida pela declaração de emergência de saúde pública de interesse internacional da Organização Mundial da Saúde. A hipótese formulada para o fenômeno foi a infecção congênita pelo vírus Zika (ZIKV), com base na correlação espaço-temporal e nas características clínico-epidemiológicas das duas epidemias. Evidências se acumularam e no âmbito do raciocínio epidemiológico preencheram critérios que deram sustentação à hipótese. Sua plausibilidade está ancorada no neurotropismo do ZIKV demonstrado em animais, atingindo neurônios progenitores do cérebro em desenvolvimento, e em seres humanos devido às complicações neurológicas observadas em adultos após a infecção. O isolamento do RNA e antígenos virais no líquido amniótico de mães infectadas e em cérebros de neonatos e fetos com microcefalia contribuíram para demonstrar a consistência da hipótese. O critério de temporalidade foi contemplado ao se identificar desfechos desfavoráveis em uma coorte de gestantes com exantema e positivas para o ZIKV. Finalmente, o primeiro estudo caso-controle conduzido demonstrou existir uma forte associação entre microcefalia e infecção congênita pelo ZIKV. O conhecimento construído no âmbito do paradigma epidemiológico recebeu a chancela da comunidade científica, construindo o consenso de uma relação causal entre o ZIKV e a epidemia de microcefalia.

En agosto de 2015, neuropediatras de hospitales públicos de Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil, observaron un aumento desproporcional del número de casos de microcefalia, asociado a anomalías cerebrales. Este hecho generó conmoción social, movilización de la comunidad académica y obligó al Ministerio de Salud a decretar la emergencia de salud pública nacional, seguida de la declaración de interés internacional de la Organización Mundial de la Salud. La hipótesis formulada para este fenómeno fue la infección congénita por el virus Zika (ZIKV), en base a la correlación espacio-temporal y a las características clínico-epidemiológicas de las dos epidemias. Se acumularon evidencias, y en el ámbito del raciocinio epidemiológico se cumplieron los criterios que dieron apoyo a la hipótesis. Su plausibilidad está anclada en el neurotropismo del ZIKV, demostrado en animales, alcanzando progenitores neuronales del cerebro en desarrollo, y en seres humanos, debido a las complicaciones neurológicas observadas en adultos tras la infección. El aislamiento del ARN y antígenos virales en el líquido amniótico de madres infectadas, en cerebros de neonatos y fetos con microcefalia, contribuyeron a demostrar la consistencia de la hipótesis. El criterio de temporalidad se contempló al identificarse desenlaces desfavorables en una cohorte de gestantes con exantema y positivas en ZIKV. Finalmente, el primer estudio caso-control realizado demostró que existía una fuerte asociación entre microcefalia e infección congénita por el ZIKV. El conocimiento construido en el ámbito del paradigma epidemiológico recibió la aprobación de la comunidad científica, existiendo consenso en cuanto a la relación causal entre el ZIKV y la epidemia de microcefalia.

Epidemia de microcefalia e vírus Zika: a construção do conhecimento em epidemiologia / Epidemia de microcefalia y virus Zika: la construcción del conocimiento en epidemiología / The microcephaly epidemic and Zika virus: building knowledge in epidemiology

Em agosto de 2015, neuropediatras de hospitais públicos do Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil, observaram um aumento do número de casos de microcefalia desproporcional associado a anomalias cerebrais. Esse fato gerou comoção social, mobilização da comunidade acadêmica e levou o Ministério da Saúde a decretar emergência de saúde pública nacional, seguida pela declaração de emergência de saúde pública de interesse internacional da Organização Mundial da Saúde. A hipótese formulada para o fenômeno foi a infecção congênita pelo vírus Zika (ZIKV), com base na correlação espaço-temporal e nas características clínico-epidemiológicas das duas epidemias. Evidências se acumularam e no âmbito do raciocínio epidemiológico preencheram critérios que deram sustentação à hipótese. Sua plausibilidade está ancorada no neurotropismo do ZIKV demonstrado em animais, atingindo neurônios progenitores do cérebro em desenvolvimento, e em seres humanos devido às complicações neurológicas observadas em adultos após a infecção. O isolamento do RNA e antígenos virais no líquido amniótico de mães infectadas e em cérebros de neonatos e fetos com microcefalia contribuíram para demonstrar a consistência da hipótese. O critério de temporalidade foi contemplado ao se identificar desfechos desfavoráveis em uma coorte de gestantes com exantema e positivas para o ZIKV. Finalmente, o primeiro estudo caso-controle conduzido demonstrou existir uma forte associação entre microcefalia e infecção congênita pelo ZIKV. O conhecimento construído no âmbito do paradigma epidemiológico recebeu a chancela da comunidade científica, construindo o consenso de uma relação causal entre o ZIKV e a epidemia de microcefalia.

En agosto de 2015, neuropediatras de hospitales públicos de Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil, observaron un aumento desproporcional del número de casos de microcefalia, asociado a anomalías cerebrales. Este hecho generó conmoción social, movilización de la comunidad académica y obligó al Ministerio de Salud a decretar la emergencia de salud pública nacional, seguida de la declaración de interés internacional de la Organización Mundial de la Salud. La hipótesis formulada para este fenómeno fue la infección congénita por el virus Zika (ZIKV), en base a la correlación espacio-temporal y a las características clínico-epidemiológicas de las dos epidemias. Se acumularon evidencias, y en el ámbito del raciocinio epidemiológico se cumplieron los criterios que dieron apoyo a la hipótesis. Su plausibilidad está anclada en el neurotropismo del ZIKV, demostrado en animales, alcanzando progenitores neuronales del cerebro en desarrollo, y en seres humanos, debido a las complicaciones neurológicas observadas en adultos tras la infección. El aislamiento del ARN y antígenos virales en el líquido amniótico de madres infectadas, en cerebros de neonatos y fetos con microcefalia, contribuyeron a demostrar la consistencia de la hipótesis. El criterio de temporalidad se contempló al identificarse desenlaces desfavorables en una cohorte de gestantes con exantema y positivas en ZIKV. Finalmente, el primer estudio caso-control realizado demostró que existía una fuerte asociación entre microcefalia e infección congénita por el ZIKV. El conocimiento construido en el ámbito del paradigma epidemiológico recibió la aprobación de la comunidad científica, existiendo consenso en cuanto a la relación causal entre el ZIKV y la epidemia de microcefalia.

In August 2015, pediatric neurologists at public hospitals in Recife, Pernambuco State, Brazil, observed an increase in the number of disproportional microcephaly cases associated with other congenital anomalies. The fact caused social commotion and mobilization of the academic community and led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to declare a national public health emergency, followed by the declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. The hypothesis for the phenomenon was congenital Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, based on spatial-temporal correlation and the clinical-epidemiological characteristics of the two epidemics. Further evidence accumulated, and within the scope of epidemiologial reasoning fulfilled criteria that gave support to the hypothesis. The plausibility of the hypothesis is based on the neurotropism of ZIKV, demonstrated in animals, affecting neural progenitors in the developing brain, and in humans, due to neurological complications in adults following infection. Isolation of viral RNA and antigens in the amniotic fluid of infected mothers and in brains of newborns and fetuses with microcephaly further demonstrated the consistency of the hypothesis. The criterion of temporality was met by identifying adverse pregnancy outcomes in a cohort of mothers with a history of rash and positive ZIKV serology. Finally, the first case-control study demonstrated a strong association between microcephaly and congenital ZIKV infection. The knowledge built with the epidemiological paradigm was supported by the scientific community, thereby establishing the consensus for a causal relationship between ZIKV and the microcephaly epidemic.